The tables below presents the statistical probability of recruiting a familiar at any given time using cumulative probability. The suggestive math is that the true probability of an event in series is greater than the stated probability at any given time.
Example: Xanti's recruiting probability increases by 1% each time. However, when Xanti's recruiting is reached at 5%, the true probability of success at that point is greater than 5%, as it had a chance of success at 4%, 3%, 2%, and 1%.
According to the tables below, the average success for a familiar with 1% recruit increment will convert at 12%, while a familiar with 5% recruit increment will convert at 25%.
Familiar with 1% recruit increment: Edit
Success, %[a] | Probability of Failure [b] = 1 - [a] | Probability of Failure, Cumulative[c]* | Probability of Success, Cumulative [d] = 1 - [c] |
1% | 99% | 99.0% | 1.00% |
2% | 98% | 97.0% | 2.98% |
3% | 97% | 94.1% | 5.89% |
4% | 96% | 90.3% | 9.65% |
5% | 95% | 85.8% | 14.17% |
6% | 94% | 80.7% | 19.32% |
7% | 93% | 75.0% | 24.97% |
8% | 92% | 69.0% | 30.97% |
9% | 91% | 62.8% | 37.18% |
10% | 90% | 56.5% | 43.47% |
11% | 89% | 50.3% | 49.68% |
12% | 88% | 44.3% | 55.72% |
13% | 87% | 38.5% | 61.48% |
14% | 86% | 33.1% | 66.87% |
15% | 85% | 28.2% | 71.84% |
16% | 84% | 23.7% | 76.35% |
17% | 83% | 19.6% | 80.37% |
18% | 82% | 16.1% | 83.90% |
19% | 81% | 13.0% | 86.96% |
20% | 80% | 10.4% | 89.57% |
21% | 79% | 8.2% | 91.76% |
22% | 78% | 6.4% | 93.57% |
23% | 77% | 4.9% | 95.05% |
24% | 76% | 3.8% | 96.24% |
25% | 75% | 2.8% | 97.18% |
26% | 74% | 2.1% | 97.91% |
27% | 73% | 1.5% | 98.48% |
28% | 72% | 1.1% | 98.90% |
29% | 71% | 0.8% | 99.22% |
30% | 70% | 0.5% | 99.45% |
31% | 69% | 0.4% | 99.62% |
32% | 68% | 0.3% | 99.74% |
33% | 67% | 0.2% | 99.83% |
34% | 66% | 0.1% | 99.89% |
35% | 65% | 0.1% | 99.93% |
[c]* = This is the product of the probability of failure up to the current probability % level. For example, when recruiting probability is at 5%, [c] is calculated as (99%*98%*97%*96%*95%) = 85.8% true chance of the event occurring in the series.
Familiar with 5% recruit increment: Edit
Success, %[a] | Probability of Failure [b] = 1 - [a] | Probability of Failure, Cumulative[c]* | Probability of Success, Cumulative [d] = 1 - [c] |
5% | 95% | 95.0% | 5.00% |
10% | 90% | 85.5% | 14.50% |
15% | 85% | 72.7% | 27.33% |
20% | 80% | 58.1% | 41.86% |
25% | 75% | 43.6% | 56.40% |
30% | 70% | 30.5% | 69.48% |
35% | 65% | 19.8% | 80.16% |
40% | 60% | 11.9% | 88.10% |
45% | 55% | 6.5% | 93.45% |
50% | 50% | 3.3% | 96.73% |
55% | 45% | 1.5% | 98.53% |
60% | 40% | 0.6% | 99.41% |
65% | 35% | 0.2% | 99.79% |
70% | 30% | 0.1% | 99.94% |
75% | 25% | 0.0% | 99.98% |
80% | 20% | 0.0% | 100.00% |
85% | 15% | 0.0% | 100.00% |
90% | 10% | 0.0% | 100.00% |
95% | 5% | 0.0% | 100.00% |
[c]* = This is the product of the probability of failure up to the current probability % level. For example, when recruiting probability is at 15%, [c] is calculated as (95%*90%*85%) = 72.7% true chance of the event occurring in the series.